Stock Market Predictions 📈 📉
Hello from SurveyMonkey! In this week’s newsletter, Brianna is back to share exclusive data on how investors and non-investors are feeling about the stock market: find out which investors are looking to ante up and who’s choosing to hold back. But first, as always, we wanted to shout out some of our research data in the news and on our blog:
In-office work picks up, but remote workers are happier: in the two years following the Covid-19 pandemic, the latest CNBC|Momentive poll shows 65% of U.S. workers are back in the office, up from 60% in April of 2021. Yet, remote workers are happier: 52% of fully remote workers are very satisfied with their jobs, compared with 47% of workers working mostly from home, 40% of workers working mostly from the office, and 47% of workers working fully from the office. Read the coverage on CNBC.
Transgender adults are subject to more microaggressions: a new SurveyMonkey poll shows that transgender adults experience microaggressions at a much higher rate than cisgender adults. Transgender adults are more than twice as likely as cisgender adults to say they codeswitch (55% vs. 20%) and 45% of transgender adults experience mansplaining often while just 25% of cisgender adults say the same. Read the blog post here.
Majority say stock market has yet to hit bottom
The overwhelming majority of adults (77%) in the U.S. say we have yet to see the bottom of the stock market. Only 19% say the stock market has likely hit its low point already.
Investors and non-investors are in close agreement: 81% of investors say we have yet to see the bottom of the stock market compared with 76% of non-investors
Amid economic instability and recent declines in the stock market, 60% of adults expect the market to go down in the next six months. Just 22% expect the market to go up while even fewer (15%) expect the market to stay about the same over the next six months. This remains true regardless of gender, age, race, or income.
Investors are slightly more likely than non-investors to expect the stock market to go up in the next 6 months (25% vs. 19%)
Yet politics plays a significant role as Republicans consistently have a gloomier outlook on the stock market:
76% of Republicans expect the stock market to go down while just 47% of Democrats say the same
Republicans are also more likely than Democrats to say we have yet to see the bottom of the stock market (87% vs. 70%)
Expectations differ depending on how closely one follows the stock market: 60% of those who follow the stock market “very closely” expect the market to drop in the next few months – roughly on par with those who don’t follow the market closely at all (55%). However, it’s not all downhill according to those following more closely: 31% of those who follow the market “very closely” expect the stock market to go up – almost double the number who don’t follow the stock market closely at all (14%).
Recession concerns ward off future investments
Almost 4 in 10 (38%) Americans say they think today’s economy is in a recession – up 29 points from a December 2018 Axios|SurveyMonkey poll (9%) conducted on the heels of a year of strong economic growth, and just about reaching the Trump Administration’s target growth of 3% (the economy grew at 2.9% in 2018). A quarter (24%) believe today’s economy is stagnating while 15% say it’s growing slowly and another 15% say it’s in a depression. Just 6% say today’s economy is growing rapidly.
Republicans are nearly twice as likely as Democrats to say today’s economy is in a recession (52% vs. 27%)
Amid recession concerns, 40% of adults say now is a bad time to invest in the financial markets – signaling that some Americans may hold off on future investments. A third (34%) say it’s neither a good nor a bad time and only 23% say now is a good time.
Some investors look to ‘buy the dip’: 30% of current investors say now is a good time to invest – almost double that of non-investors (15%)
Those closely following the stock market are most likely to say now is a good time to invest (40%) compared with those following “somewhat closely” (28%), “not so closely” (19%), or “not closely at all” (11%)
Republicans are more likely to have a dour view: 51% of Republicans say now is a bad time to invest vs. 30% of Democrats and 40% of independents
Amid market flux, half of investors plan to leave investments as is
The majority of current investors (59%) don’t plan to change their investments in the next six months while 26% say they’ll invest more money and 13% will take money out of the stock market.
Small-time investors are looking to ante up: 39% of those who’ve invested $1,000 or less are most likely to invest more money in the next six months – the highest compared to those who’ve invested between $1,000-$9,999 (31%), $10,000-$49,999 (24%), $50,000-$99,999 (23%), $100,000-$499,999 (23%) and $500,000 or more (29%)
Bulls in a bear market: 41% of younger adults (age 18-34) plan to invest more money – almost double that of adults 65+ (12%) and 1.5x higher than adults age 35-64 (27%)
Sentiment around investing in the current state of the stock market is mixed. In investors’ own words: “buy,” “risky,” “bad,” “cautious,” and “scared” to name a few, but –more than anything else– “invest”
Republican investors, too, hold a mixed outlook, defining their feelings around the market as “invest,” “buy,” “risky,” “bad,” “cautious,” and “scary”
Democrats have an equally cautious view, describing their feelings around the market as “invest,” “buy,” “cautious,” “unsure,” and “nervous”
That’s all for this week! Thanks as always for reading.